Analysis of the projection of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index with precipitation and temperature in Nicaragua, through a progressive standard model, which guarantees decision making in very critical weather scenarios

Abstract

The importance of precipitation and temperature forecast models is essential, as they allow for the analysis of adverse scenarios that may impact agriculture during both dry and rainy seasons. These indicators are used for decision-making with the aim of minimizing the negative impacts of human activities on nature. In this context, a Progressive Standard Model (PSM) is presented to help understand the relationship between the atmospheric index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and precipitation variability in Nicaragua. The NAO index, precipitation, and temperature display linear and polynomial trends, with correlations of 0.96, 0.97, and 0.93, respectively, for the factors studied. This enables the projection of trends for the next five years using the PSM method. Therefore, this research focuses on forecasting negative scenarios to propose strategies that strengthen risk management and assist decision-makers in harmonizing climate variability.